News

Why oil prices are muted despite Iran attack?

By AFP

April 16, 2024 11:39 PM


Twitter Share Facebook Share WhatsApp Share

Oil prices have failed to soar even after major crude producer Iran attacked Israel with drones and missiles, risking wider conflict in the crude-rich Middle East.

On Tuesday, the world's main oil contracts were trading slightly higher.

European benchmark, Brent North Sea crude, gained 0.1 percent to $90.17 per barrel.

WTI, the main US-traded oil contract, won 0.3 percent to $85.66 per barrel.

They fell on Monday following the weekend attack.

 Retaliation?

 The fallout from Iran's actions was to an extent priced in by markets as warnings had been given before the attack, although the scale of retaliation remains unclear.

"The attack, announced well in advance, resulted in minimal damage as Israeli and allied forces intercepted nearly all projectiles," noted Ole Hvalbye, an analyst at SEB bank.

From late on Saturday to early Sunday, Iran launched more than 300 drones, missiles, and ballistic missiles at Israel but caused just minor damage, including at a military base in the country's south.

"The market discounts a possible escalation of the crisis between Iran and Israel," said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Energy.

"It believes that any Israeli retaliation will be measured, partly due to US and international pressure to show restraint.

"Iran will also be careful not to exacerbate the situation as it will want to continue its crude oil exports," Varga told AFP.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned there could be further sanctions targeting Iran.

It already faces crippling US sanctions since Washington's unilateral withdrawal in 2018 from a landmark deal that had promised sanctions relief in return for curbs on Iran's nuclear program.

The sanctions sharply reduced Iran's oil revenues and further restricted trade, helping to harden the decades-old enmity between the United States and Israel.

  Supply disruption? 

 Iran still produces close to 3.2 million oil barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency, which last year put the country as the world's ninth largest crude producer.

"Israel may exert pressure on its ally, the US, to impose stricter sanctions on Iran," said Hvalbye.

"The enforcement of such sanctions, particularly on Iranian oil exports, could result in a loss of anywhere between 0.5 million to 1.0 million barrels per day of oil supply."

That should still leave Iran's daily output above the roughly 1.9 million barrels of oil seen in mid-2020 -- after then-US president Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear agreement.

Varga forecast that spare oil capacity within the OPEC cartel "should be sufficient to mitigate the impact of any supply disruption" caused by Iran.

He said this would be the case as long as major oil producer Saudi Arabia was not drawn into the conflict, or that the Strait of Hormuz -- a key sea passage for transporting crude -- remained open.

"For now, the market believes that further serious conflagration is avoidable," Varga added.


AFP


Most Read

  1. Here are the prominent victories of Kashmir Hum Style Awards 2024 Here are the prominent victories of Kashmir Hum Style Awards 2024
  2. Stars gliter Kashmir Hum Style Awards 2024 red carpet night, exude glitz & glam Stars gliter Kashmir Hum Style Awards 2024 red carpet night, exude glitz & glam
  3. Meet and greet! Few Glimpses of Star-studded ‘Gentleman’ premiere affair Meet and greet! Few Glimpses of Star-studded ‘Gentleman’ premiere affair
  4. Alizeh Shah emerges with ‘BF’ at dazzling awards night Alizeh Shah emerges with ‘BF’ at dazzling awards night
  5. Social media erupts in protest as Hania trumps Ayeza Khan for Most Stylish Award Social media erupts in protest as Hania trumps Ayeza Khan for Most Stylish Award
  6. Electricity, flour prices slashed after PM Shehbaz orders immediate release of Rs23b to AJK govt Electricity, flour prices slashed after PM Shehbaz orders immediate release of Rs23b to AJK govt

Opinion

  1. Alice Munro, Canada's 'Chekhov'
    Alice Munro, Canada's 'Chekhov'

    By AFP

  2. Pak-Saudi-Iran economic proximity
    Pak-Saudi-Iran economic proximity

    By News Desk

  3. Military Establishment rules out any deal with what it terms a ‘bunch of anarchists’
    Military Establishment rules out any deal with what it terms a ‘bunch of anarchists’

    By Salim Bokhari

  4. 9th May - A year later
    9th May - A year later

    By Mutaza Solangi

  5. Everything but the truth in Telegraph
    Everything but the truth in Telegraph

    By Mutaza Solangi

  6. PM Shehbaz Sharif, WEF and Pakistan
    PM Shehbaz Sharif, WEF and Pakistan

    By Naveed Aman Khan