Cyclone Tej will cross over the Yemen-Oman coasts between Al Ghaidah (Yemen) and Salalah (Oman) early on October 25 as an eighth alert has been issued for coastal area residents and fishers.
The Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre's latest report outlines that Tej currently rests over the west-central Arabian Sea, about 200 kilometres from Socotra, Yemen and 300 kilometres from Salalah, Oman. It is most likely to weaken into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm within the next six hours.
Most models agree that Tej will make landfall over Yemen's coasts tonight, October 23, with wind speeds of 125-150 kmph. Due to its current proximity and how far the current cone of uncertainty lies from our country, and It would take a miracle for the storm to recurve towards India at this point.
However, low-lying areas of Al Ghaydah and Al Fadami near the landfall point could experience two-metre-tall storm surges at the time of landfall, RSMC warns. Further, due to prevailing rough conditions over the southwest and west-central Arabian Sea till Tuesday (October 24), fisherfolk have been advised to return to the coast till the weather improves in the region.
A tropical cyclone named TEJ formed over the central Arabian Sea on 20 October and started moving northwest toward the Arabian Peninsula, strengthening.
On 23 October at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located over the Sea, north of Socotra Island (Yemen) and approximately 210 km south-east of Qishn Town, Al Mahrah Governorate, south-eastern Yemen, near the border with Oman, with maximum sustained winds of 176 km/h.
TEJ is forecast to make landfall over the area of Qishn Town in the late afternoon (UTC) of 23 October, with maximum sustained winds up to 145 km/h.
Over the next 72 hours, very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over the Socotra Island, eastern Yemen and the neighbouring western Oman.