By: Abdul Raheem Fakhar
More than a week after deadly border clashes left dozens dead and disrupted trade across one of Asia’s most volatile frontiers, the ties between the two South Asian neighbours have plunged to their lowest point since the Taliban returned to power in 2021. Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to an immediate ceasefire in talks held in Doha on 18 October with support from Turkey and Qatar. The two neighbours were urged to curb hostilities, respect each other’s sovereignty, and set up mechanisms to monitor compliance.
On 8 October, 11 Pakistani military personnel lost their lives during clashes with Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) fighters in Pakistan’s north-western province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. On 11 October, Islamabad reportedly responded by carrying out air strikes on high-value targets inside Afghanistan, and a tit-for-tat pattern of hostilities has continued ever since. Dozens of people have been killed and hundreds wounded in the worst bout of violence in recent years. Violence erupted at multiple fronts along their 2,600km (1,600-mile) border, marking it one of the most serious escalations in years. Recent border clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan almost erupted into a full-scale war.
The border closures in early October reportedly halted the movement of thousands of trucks carrying goods such as fuel, food and construction materials. Afghanistan being a landlocked country, Pakistan remains the main source of goods and food supplies, and major losses are expected for Afghanistan’s economy as a result of current tensions. The week-long shutdown led to a sharp decline in income, food shortages and job losses for day labourers, as daily bilateral trade, estimated at $6–7 million, dropped to almost zero during the clashes. Moreover, all Afghan refugees, both legal and illegal are being repatriated from Pakistan, border crossings are closed, and vehicles loaded with goods are stranded. Economists warn that prolonged instability could undermine both countries’ fragile economies and threaten regional trade initiatives such as CPEC and the Pakistan–Afghanistan Transit Trade Agreement.
According to Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, the two parties agreed to hold follow-up meetings in the coming days to ensure the sustainability of the ceasefire and verify its implementation in a reliable and sustainable manner, thus contributing to achieving security and stability in both countries. Moreover, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said that cross-border terrorism from Afghan territory will cease immediately, and both countries will respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said that under the terms of the agreement both sides reaffirmed their commitment to peace, mutual respect, and maintenance of strong and constructive neighbourly relations. In a post on social media, Mujahid said that both sides are committed to resolving issues and disputes through dialogue and it has been decided that neither country will undertake any hostile actions against the other, nor will they support groups carrying out attacks against the Government of Pakistan.
Zabihullah Mujahid, Ishaq Dar and Khawaja Asif thanked Qatar and Turkey for their role in facilitating the talks that led to the ceasefire.The next meeting is scheduled in Istanbul on 25 October, but it will be challenging for the Afghan Taliban to take action, as there are multiple actors involved, including many who were not part of the talks in Doha and therefore not subject to the agreement.
Pakistan wants the Taliban to rein in armed groups such as the Pakistani Taliban and others blamed for carrying out attacks on its territory. Armed attacks by the TTP and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which operates in the Balochistan province, have surged in recent years with 2025 on track to become the deadliest year. KPK and Balochistan, which border Afghanistan have borne the brunt of the violence. According to the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), at least 2,414 deaths have been recorded in the first three quarters of this year and a 46 percent surge in violence compared to last year.
Islamabad also wants the Taliban to stop regrouping or expansion of anti-Pakistan networks within Afghanistan, which the government considers a threat to Pakistan’s stability and broader regional strategy.
The way forward will depend on whether the recent diplomatic momentum, facilitated by Qatar and Turkey, can build lasting cooperation on counter-terrorism. The situation presents several possible outcomes, if the Taliban fails to take sufficient action against the TTP, cross-border violence is likely to erupt again. This would reignite the cycle of raids and retaliatory military actions seen in the past, including the devastating clashes of October 2025. The intense conflict this October has prompted Pakistan to signal a more forceful approach toward cross-border threats, indicating a potential shift in its security policy. This may involve a greater reliance on unilateral military actions to enforce its security demands.
Moreover, the crisis is unfolding amid a broader geopolitical realignment in the region. Pakistan has accused India of fuelling the conflict, pointing to India's deepening ties with the Taliban regime. This rivalry could exacerbate tensions and draw in other powers, heightening the risk of a wider regional confrontation.
For now, both governments appear motivated to prevent another escalation. Pakistan wants to maintain internal instability and the Taliban want to avoid further isolation and economic strain. But unless critical issues of militancy, governance, and border legitimacy are addressed, experts caution that this ceasefire may prove to be just another temporary pause in a decades-long cycle of conflict.