Pakistan is set to hold its 12th general election on February 8, 2024, amid a tense political and security situation. 

One of the key factors that will influence the outcome of the election is the voter turnout, which reflects the level of public participation and interest in the democratic process.

In the country of 241 million people, 128 million people will excercise their right to vote in the elections to pick 266 representatives for the National Assembly on February 8, forming the 16th parliament.

In the contest are 5,121 candidates. They belong either to Pakistan’s 167 registered political parties or are independents. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party of former Prime Minister Imran Khan has been barred from using its election symbol, the cricket bat, so its candidates will also be contesting as independents this time.

In this article, we will look at the historical trends of voter turnout in Pakistan's previous general elections, and what they can tell us about the current and future political scenario.

According to the data compiled by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), the highest voter turnout in Pakistan's history was recorded in the 1970 general election, which was also the first direct and free election in the country. The voter turnout was 57.96 percent, and the result was a landslide victory for the Awami League led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) led by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in West Pakistan. The election led to a political crisis and a civil war that resulted in the separation of East Pakistan.

The second highest voter turnout was recorded in the 2013 general election, which marked the first peaceful transfer of power from one civilian government to another in Pakistan's history. The voter turnout was 55.02 percent, and the result was a clear majority for the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) led by Nawaz Sharif, who became the prime minister for the third time. The election also saw the emergence of Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) as a major political force, especially among the urban youth.

The third highest voter turnout was recorded in the 1977 election, which was widely considered to be rigged by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's PPP, and led to a mass protest movement by the opposition Pakistan National Alliance (PNA), which culminated in a military coup by General Zia-ul-Haq.

The turnout in 1985 election was 52.93percent and the election was held under martial law, and was non-party based. The result was a victory for the supporters of General Zia-ul-Haq, who appointed Muhammad Khan Junejo as the prime minister.

The 2018 general election, which was marred by allegations of rigging and pre-poll manipulation by the military establishment. The voter turnout was 51.02 percent, and the result was a hung parliament with no party winning a clear majority. The PTI emerged as the single largest party with 116 seats out of 272, followed by the PML-N with 64 seats and the PPP with 43 seats. The PTI formed a coalition government with several smaller parties and independents, and Imran Khan became the prime minister.

The lowest voter turnout in Pakistan's history was recorded in the 1997 general election, which was held after a period of political instability and frequent dismissals of elected governments by the president under Article 58(2)(b) of the constitution. The voter turnout was 35.79 percent, and the result was a landslide victory for the PML-N, which won 137 seats out of 207. Nawaz Sharif became the prime minister for the second time, but his government was overthrown by a military coup led by General Pervez Musharraf in 1999.

The second lowest voter turnout was recorded in the 1993 general election, which was held after President Ghulam Ishaq Khan dissolved both Benazir Bhutto's government and Nawaz Sharif's government within a span of three years. The voter turnout was 40.2 percent, and the result was another hung parliament with no party winning a clear majority. The PPP again emerged as the single largest party with 86 seats out of 207, followed by the PML-N with 72 seats. Benazir Bhutto became the prime minister for the second time, but her government was dismissed by President Farooq Leghari in 1996.

The third lowest voter turnout was recorded in the 2002 election, which was held under the military rule of General Pervez Musharraf, who had amended the constitution to give himself sweeping powers as the president and the chief of army staff. The voter turnout was 41.76 percent, and the result was a victory for the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), a breakaway faction of the PML-N that supported Musharraf, and the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a coalition of six religious parties. The PML-Q and the MMA formed a coalition government, and Musharraf appointed Zafarullah Khan Jamali as the prime minister.

In the 1988 general election, which was held after the death of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's daughter and PPP leader Benazir Bhutto's husband, General Zia-ul-Haq, in a plane crash. The voter turnout was 42.75 percent, and the result was a hung parliament with no party winning a clear majority. The PPP emerged as the single largest party with 92 seats out of 207, followed by the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI), a coalition of nine religious and conservative parties, with 55 seats. Benazir Bhutto became the first female prime minister of Pakistan, but her government was dismissed by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan in 1990.

The voter turnout in 2008 election was 44.34 percent that were also held under Musharraf soon after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. The results saw a Pakistan People’s Party government with PML-N also joining the ranks as coalition partners. However, soon PML-N parted ways with the PPP. The PPP government saw Yousaf Raza Gillani and Raja Parvez Asharf as the prime ministers and Asif Ali Zardari as President of Pakistan before the assembly completed its tenure in 2013.

The 1990 elections saw a contest between of two alliances i.e. the IJI — an alliance of eight political parties — and the Peoples Democratic Alliance (PDA) — an alliance of four other political parties — were the major contestants. The voter turnout of 1990 elections was 45.17 percent. The IJI, in alliance with other parties like the ANP in NWFP and the MQM in Sindh managed to win clear majority and was able to form government at Centre and in all the four provinces. It was also the start of the first term of Nawaz Sharif in Prime Minister’s office that ended after a huge drama. First President Ghulam Ishaq Khan dismissed his government in 1993 but he was restored by the Supreme Court of Pakistan. After his restoration, he was again forced to resign from the post.

The voter turnout in Pakistan's general elections has shown a fluctuating trend over the years, depending on various factors such as the level of political competition, the credibility of the electoral process, the security situation, the media coverage, and the public awareness and mobilization.

The voter turnout in the upcoming 2024 general election will depend on how these factors play out in the next few months.

With a crackdown against Iman Khan and his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf ongoing, it is unclear whether the February 8 elections will see a lower turnout or a surge in the form of a silent protest vote in favour of PTI-aligned candidates.

The result will come out after the February 8 election results.