PDMA warns of heavy rains, more floods in Punjab next week

Authorities issued weather warnings on Wednesday as a new storm system forming over the northeast Arabian Sea threatens to bring rain and strong winds to Sindh this week. A separate westerly system is expected to unleash heavy downpours across Punjab early next week.

According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), a well-marked low-pressure area over India’s Saurashtra coast has moved westward into the Arabian Sea. It is currently located about 310 kilometers (192 miles) southeast of Karachi and is expected to intensify into a tropical depression within the next 12 hours.

Under the influence of this system, light to moderate rainfall is expected on Tuesday in Karachi and 11 other southern districts of Sindh, including Tharparkar, Umerkot, Badin, and Mirpurkhas, accompanied by squally winds reaching up to 55 km/h.

The PMD has advised fishermen in Sindh to avoid venturing into the deep sea until at least October 3. "The cyclone warning center in Karachi is closely monitoring the system and will issue regular updates," the agency said in its latest advisory.

Sea conditions off the Sindh coast are forecast to remain rough to very rough through Thursday. Authorities have warned that strong winds and lightning could damage vulnerable infrastructure, including mud-built homes, electric poles, billboards, vehicles, and solar panels.

These developments come during one of Pakistan’s harshest monsoon seasons in recent years. Since the onset of rains on June 26, over 1,000 people have died across the country, and more than 4.7 million have been affected in Punjab alone. Flooding has swamped over 4,700 villages, displaced more than 2.5 million people, and severely damaged crops such as cotton, rice, and sugarcane—impacting the agriculture sector, which employs nearly 40% of the national workforce.

Punjab, the country’s most populous province and its agricultural hub, now faces renewed flood risks. The Punjab Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has forecast a strong westerly weather system to hit the upper catchments of major rivers and the northern and northeastern parts of the province from October 5 to 7. This system is expected to bring heavy to very heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Authorities are on high alert amid concerns that further rainfall could cause rivers to swell and trigger flash floods in vulnerable areas. For now, water levels at major barrages along the Indus River — Guddu, Sukkur, and Kotri — remain normal, with Tuesday's inflows recorded at 137,332 cusecs, 105,430 cusecs, and 265,141 cusecs respectively.

Pakistan’s complex barrage network helps regulate water flow and irrigation throughout the Indus basin. However, intense rainfall can cause sudden surges that may overwhelm embankments and flood surrounding areas.

In Karachi, weather is expected to remain partly cloudy and humid through the week, with daytime temperatures between 33–36°C (91–97°F). Isolated drizzle or light rain is possible through Friday, according to PDMA Sindh. Hot and dry conditions will likely persist in other parts of Sindh not affected by the storm.

Provincial disaster management authorities in both Sindh and Punjab have instructed deputy commissioners and local disaster committees to stay on high alert. They have been ordered to implement all necessary precautions, including 24/7 monitoring and daily situation reporting as the new weather systems approach.