Think tank unveils five-year plan to create 20 million jobs by 2031
Economic think tank Economic Policy and Business Development (EPBD) has unveiled a five-year shadow development plan aimed at creating 20 million jobs by 2031 and accelerating Pakistan’s economic growth through a series of structural reforms, export expansion and investment-friendly policies.
The roadmap, covering the period from 2026 to 2031, projects the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate rising to 8.5 percent and outlines measures to strengthen exports, increase foreign exchange reserves and improve macroeconomic stability.
According to the plan, EPBD has proposed reforms focused on reducing taxes, improving the ease of doing business and lowering electricity and gas prices to stimulate economic activity and encourage investment.
The think tank projected a significant increase in domestic exports from $30 billion to $78 billion over the next five years. Imports are estimated to rise from $63 billion to $88 billion during the same period, while the existing trade deficit of $35 billion is targeted to be eliminated by 2031 through stronger export growth and economic reforms.
The development plan also forecasts an increase in external financing inflows to $29 billion by 2031. Remittances are projected to grow from $40 billion to $60 billion over the five-year period, while foreign exchange reserves are expected to reach $63.5 billion.
Under the proposed roadmap, EPBD has estimated that interest rates could decline from the current 11.5 percent to 7 percent by 2031, while inflation would be maintained at around 5 percent.
The plan also sets ambitious fiscal targets. The tax-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase from 10.5 percent to 18 percent over the next five years, while the gross national savings rate is expected to rise from 12.5 percent to 22.5 percent.
Sector-wise, the think tank expects agricultural output growth to increase from 3.6 percent to 6.8 percent, industrial sector growth from 4.3 percent to 9 percent and services sector growth from 4.8 percent to 9.6 percent by 2031.
The roadmap further proposes reducing the public debt ratio to 60 percent of GDP and increasing per capita income to $2,900 annually within five years.
EPBD said the proposed reforms are aimed at placing Pakistan on a higher, more sustainable growth trajectory by boosting productivity, attracting investment, expanding exports, and creating employment opportunities across key sectors of the economy.
The shadow development plan comes as policymakers and economic stakeholders continue to debate strategies to achieve long-term economic stability, increase exports, and generate employment amid ongoing fiscal and external sector challenges.
Reporter: Waqas Azeem