EU parliament holding hard right at bay -- for now

One year after big hard-right gains in the EU's parliament, the mainstream centrist alliance still holds sway in the assembly -- but it has tacked firmly right on environmental issues, with key tests yet to come.

The conservative European People's Party (EPP) of Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen got a boost from last year's elections -- returned as the biggest force in parliament, but now with a choice of partners to pick from.

Its traditional allies are the centrists and social democrats -- but if they won't play ball, the EPP can also make up the votes on the hard right.

That has only happened a few times so far -- but parliament-watchers say the mere option gives the EPP leverage.

And on issues from migration to defence to paring back green rules in the name of competitiveness, the European Union agenda has tilted squarely right.

"It's very challenging," said Green EU lawmaker Tilly Metz, who sees a "conservative alliance that does not want to protect nature" at work in the assembly.

On environmental matters, "the wind has really shifted -- and it's blowing much harder and colder," she said.

Most strikingly, a hard-fought law requiring companies to ensure their global supply chains are free of ethical and environmental abuses has had its rollout pushed back to 2028.

Its future is now in doubt, with both German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron suggesting it be scrapped in the name of slashing red tape.

 'Real test' coming up  

That said, Europe's centrists and social democrats and even some of its greens remain on board with the EPP-led alliance -- with varying degrees of discomfort.

As the bloc confronts complex challenges from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to Donald Trump's aggressive US trade policy and a surge in anti-immigrant populism, the coalition has held more often than not.

"The constructive majorities we continue to form rest on pro-European forces at the centre," EU parliament president Roberta Metsola, who hails from the EPP, told AFP. "I do not see that changing."

Valerie Hayer, leader of the centrist group Renew, says it's too soon to say.

"We haven't got to the hard part yet," she told AFP. "The real test will be September and October, when we actually start examining legislation."

Under the EU's system, the European Commission drafts new laws, which are submitted to the 27 member states and parliament for review and approval.

The current parliament has yet to start work on major new legislation -- which some see as a sign of a highly centralised policy process under von der Leyen.

"Her team can't do everything -- so there's a kind of logjam with fewer texts arriving in parliament," said Hayer.

 Hard right divided  

The hard right's impact in parliament is limited by its division into three factions: the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), the Patriots for Europe, and the Europe of Sovereign Nations.

The ECR -- which includes Italian leader Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy party -- is by far the most integrated in the EU policy game.

Its lawmakers have claimed strategic parliament jobs, with Veronika Vrecionova of the Czech Republic heading the influential agriculture committee, for instance -- just as the Brothers of Italy's Raffaele Fitto clinched a vice presidency in von der Leyen's top team.

"Europe is coming our way, and this is an exciting time for the ECR," said group leader Nicola Procaccini. "We are natural partners with the EPP across a range of policies."

While the left and centre increasingly accept the ECR's role -- albeit through gritted teeth at times -- a firewall still keeps key posts and files from the Patriots and Sovereignists.

But the Patriots -- sometimes criticised for a lack of assiduity -- are working to change that by polishing their policymaking credentials.

Led in parliament by France's Jordan Bardella -- the group's public face, along with its founder, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban -- the Patriots have made a point of filing more amendments.

Speaking to reporters in parliament Wednesday, Bardella slammed the stigma on his group as undemocratic.

While stressing the Patriots were not "backers of the European Commission", he said "it's clear that the unprecedented new makeup of the assembly means the majority is looking to its right."