Boeing sees 50,000 commercial plane market in 20 years

The world's airways will have just over 50,000 commercial aircraft in 2043, almost double the current number, according to a forecast released Friday by Boeing.

The global fleet will "nearly double over the next 20 years," with about half of deliveries consisting of new models with greater fuel efficiency to replace older jets, according to the forecast.

"The balance between replacement and growth is very close, about 50-50," said Darren Hulst, vice president of marketing for Boeing's commercial aviation division.

Of the nearly 44,000 new planes to be delivered between now and 2043, more than 33,000 are single-aisle and 8,000 dual-aisle planes.

While airlines have announced ambitious orders to update their fleets, both Boeing and European rival Airbus have faced supply chain shortfalls that have pushed back the timeframe on many plane deliveries.

That has resulted in fewer retirements of old planes. In the 2020-2023 period, the removal rate of planes was half the pace of the 2010s decade as carriers stick with older planes to meet travel demand.

But fewer than one third of the 26,750 planes currently in service will still be operating in 20 years.

The forecast estimates that passenger air traffic will rise an average of 4.7 percent annually, outpacing the 3.2 percent growth in the airplane fleet.

Airlines are meeting demand by "increasing load factors and using airplanes more hours per day," Boeing said.

The analysis also points to the imperative for extensive hiring of aviation maintenance and other workers, with a global need of 85 million people in 2043, around double the current level and whose cost of services amount to an estimated $4.4 trillion.

Airbus, which released its forecast on July 15, also expects a doubling of the global commercial airplane market over the next 20 years.

787 rework completed by end of 2024

Boeing expects to complete repair work on more than 100 Dreamliner 787 planes by the end of 2024, after detecting manufacturing problems on the fuselage, a top company official said.

"We will finish this year," Scott Stocker, head of Boeing's South Carolina plant, told reporters at a recent briefing in Everett, Washington, where the work is taking place.

The operation focuses on rework and a process called "join verification" after Boeing employees raised concerns about gaps between parts and other issues.

The company has 60 Dreamliner aircraft in inventory, having already completed work on about 50 to 60 planes, Stocker said.

Stocker described the operation as a multi-year process that will be completed in the next few months.

Boeing suspended deliveries during large stretches between 2020 and 2022 as it addressed the issue, which it has said did not pose an immediate flight risk.

In the fourth quarter of 2021, Boeing announced $3.5 billion in costs due to the 787 problems, which has taken longer than expected to resolve.

The company subsequently accounted for an additional $3 billion in abnormal costs for the 787 in 2023.

The issue resurfaced dramatically in April when Boeing engineer and whistleblower Sam Salehpour went public with worries about the prospect of a catastrophic accident, testifying before a US Senate panel with other Boeing critics.

Boeing defended the 787 as safe, pointing to what it said was extensive testing overseen by US air safety officials.

Boeing has also slowed production of the 787 as it redoubles on safety and quality control efforts following recent difficulties with the 737 MAX that have heaped scrutiny on the company.

"We are making good progress," Stocker said of the operation in North Charleston where the 787 is assembled.

"We are planning to return steadily to five per month," he said.

But Stocker said a dearth of parts like seats and heat exchangers still poses an obstacle.

"The supply chain is really the biggest hurdle to get to 10 a month," Stocker said, adding that the South Carolina site continues to advance construction on a second line of production.

Through the end of June, Boeing had received 2,368 orders for the 787, which went into service in 2011. Of these, 786 are listed as unfilled.