‘Super El Niño’ threat looms over Pakistan, raising heatwave, drought risks: NDMA expert

A “super” El Niño event could push temperatures higher across Pakistan in the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves and drought conditions even before the monsoon season, a technical expert at the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) said.

In an interview with 24NewsHD, Dr Tayyab of NDMA said May and June are expected to be significantly hotter than usual, with an elevated risk of extreme heat events.

“Climate models indicate that both this year and the next could be warmer than average,” he said, adding that heatwave conditions are more likely to occur across multiple regions.

Dr Tayyab pointed to recent observations in Multan, where a rare “heat burst” phenomenon has been recorded.

He explained that a heat burst — similar in suddenness to a cloudburst — causes temperatures to spike rapidly, often at night.

The likelihood of such events forming this year is high, he said, noting that the Pothohar Region is also expected to face more intense heatwaves. At the same time, temperatures in Islamabad have already risen compared to last year.

The expert warned that extreme heat could impact not only human populations but also aquatic life, as rising temperatures affect both land and sea surfaces.

He added that large parts of South Punjab, along with Sindh and Balochistan, may face drought-like conditions in the coming months.