Shattered Lion: Iran Shadows from Tel Aviv to Delhi

Jerusalem’s "Operation Rising Lion" – a name dripping with Pahlavi-era nostalgia – was meant to be Benjamin Netanyahu’s masterpiece ___ collapsed in a storm of missile debris and deception. The strike’s symbolic invocation of the Shir-e Khorshid (Lion and Sun) emblem, aimed at triggering nostalgia for the toppled Shah, failed to spark internal revolt. For years, Mossad agents infiltrated Iran, smuggling precision weapons, planting explosive-laden drones near Tehran, and mapping nuclear facilities. The June 13, 2025, blitzkrieg aimed to decapitate Iran’s nuclear program, eliminate Revolutionary Guard leaders like Hossein Salami and Mohammad Bagheri, and trigger a popular uprising by bombing symbols of regime oppression, including Evin Prison. Netanyahu framed it as existential: "If we don’t act now, we simply won’t be here”. The operation’s very name evoked the toppled Shah’s imperial banner – a not-so-subtle signal that regime change, restoring a Western-friendly monarchy, was the true objective. Yet, 12 days later, the "Lion" lay wounded. Iran’s air defenses, though degraded, adapted swiftly. Ballistic missiles slammed into Beer Sheva and Tel Aviv, killing 28 Israelis, displacing millions, and inflicting $1.3 billion in damage – nearly double the cost of 20 months in Gaza. The nuclear program? Damaged but intact, with uranium secretly moved from Fordow before U.S. bunker-busters struck. The uprising? A fantasy. Even dissidents like Narges Mohammadi rallied behind Tehran, rejecting foreign-imposed revolution.  

Netanyahu’s miscalculation was strategic, not tactical. Israel exposed Iran’s military vulnerabilities but cemented its political resilience. The strikes united a fractured nation. As Al Jazeera noted, Iranians saw "Iran in its entirety under attack and not just ‘the regime’. Trump’s betrayal – bombing Fordow days after floating a nuclear deal – only hardened Tehran’s defiance. The ceasefire, brokered by Qatar under U.S. pressure, allowed Netanyahu to declare "historic victory," but his real aim – collapsing the Islamic Republic – failed utterly. Worse, Israel’s aura of invincibility shattered. Iranian missiles overwhelmed the Iron Dome, forcing civilians into shelters nightly. The economy neared collapse, with interceptor stocks depleted and global markets briefly panicking. Netanyahu’s corruption trials, delayed by the war, now loom with renewed intensity. Trump’s Truth Social rants demanding Netanyahu’s legal immunity – "We saved Israel from Iran; now we’ll save Netanyahu" – underscore the desperation. The gambit to use war as a distraction is unraveling.  

Netanyahu’s judicial escape hatch slammed shut when Israel’s Supreme Court rejected his trial delay request, calling it a "transparent ploy to evade accountability." This validated a pattern I exposed in my article Populism: Arsonists in Power: “wars ignite to derail justice”. Donald Trump amplified this conspiracy, demanding Netanyahu’s immunity on Truth Social while hailing him as "Israel’s greatest warrior" and condemning the trial as a "WITCH HUNT”. Trump’s hypocrisy peaked as he positioned himself for a Nobel Peace Prize while enabling Netanyahu’s carnage—even as his own strikes on Iran triggered Iranian missile retaliation against U.S. bases in Qatar. Trump’s military intervention in Iran—admitted by Trump as "saving Israel from elimination"—backfired catastrophically. U.S. bunker-buster strikes only set back Iran’s nuclear program by months, not years, per U.S. intelligence assessments. His ceasefire announcement ("historic victory!") collapsed within days, revealing his peacemaking as theater.

This failure has seismic implications for Israel’s expansionist ambitions. The "Greater Israel" vision – stretching from the Nile to the Euphrates – requires neutralizing two critical roadblocks: Iran, the Shiite fortress blocking eastward hegemony, and Pakistan, the nuclear-armed obstacle to "Akhand Bharat" (Undivided India), Israel’s tacit alliance partner against Muslim powers. Iran’s survival is a catastrophe for this design. As the Modern Diplomacy report (June 24, 2025) exposed, Israel and India devised a contingency plan: if Iran fell, they would dismember Pakistan – balkanizing Sindh and Punjab, annexing Kashmir, and isolating China from Gwadar Port. Pakistan’s nuclear program, long an Israeli target, was to be dismantled. With Iran standing, this plan is in disarray.  

Yet the threat to Pakistan remains acute – and may escalate. Israel’s military, though bruised, retains formidable capabilities. Its Mossad-Elbit Systems-Adani nexus is already lethal. The Adani-Elbit weapons nexus fuels destruction from Gaza to Pakistan’s borderlands. Gautam Adani’s Hyderabad (India) missile factory while also having infrastructure at Haifa port—built under Narendra Modi’s patronage—produces 85% of the Elbit Systems munitions Israel deployed in Gaza, with UN investigators documenting debris in bombed schools and hospitals. Identical munitions now arm TTP factions and Baloch separatist groups in Pakistan via covert Omani routes. With Iran wounded but defiant, Netanyahu could redirect resources toward destabilizing Pakistan through covert action:  

- Fueling Separatism: Exploiting ethnic tensions in Sindh and Balochistan to fracture Pakistan’s federation.  

- Precision Strikes: Using intelligence-sharing with India to target CPEC infrastructure or nuclear assets.  

- Economic Sabotage: Covert ops to trigger financial crises, weakening state capacity.  

Bilawal Bhutto’s warnings in Parliament during this war – "After Iran, Pakistan is next" – now seem prescient. His critique of Modi as "Temu Netanyahu" encapsulates the danger: two leaders using hyper-nationalism, militarism, and regime-change fantasies to mask corruption and territorial greed.  

The path ahead is perilous. Netanyahu, emboldened by temporary domestic praise for the Iran strikes, faces a crossroads. Gaza festers, with Hamas regrouping and hostages still captive. The far right demands total conquest, while moderates see an opening for peace. Trump, eyeing Nobel glory, may pressure Israel to de-escalate Gaza, but his capriciousness – praising Netanyahu one day, cursing him the next – offers no stability. For Pakistan, the lesson is clear: Iran’s defiance bought time, not absolution. The Adani-Elbit arms pipeline must be severed. Defensive alliances with China and Iran, coupled with nuclear transparency, could deter Israeli-Indian adventurism. As the ruins of Natanz smolder, the Greater Israel project faces its sternest test. The Lion’s roar, it turns out, was a whimper – but the arsonists in power remain desperate for a bigger blaze.  

"Regime change is the addiction of empires in decline. With each failed intervention, they inject more violence – until the overdose consumes them." – Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei (Post Strike Address)