Imran: How Long in Jail?
Who serves time in prison willingly? Especially in an environment where you don’t even know how long you’ll have to stay confined. It’s been two years since Imran Khan went to jail. The protest call for August 5 failed miserably, and the August 14 call will meet the same fate. The sole purpose of giving protest calls is to secure Imran Khan’s release — meaning he is fed up and no longer wants to remain in jail.
At the time of his arrest, he had hopes from several quarters both inside and outside the country, believing they would exert pressure or use influence to get him out. Many efforts were made in this regard but none succeeded. Over time, PTI sympathizers within the state system and judiciary have been systematically sidelined. The expectations placed on the US, especially President Trump, also turned out to be an illusion. The travels of Qasim and Salman from London to Washington are an admission that even the Goldsmith House’s confidence is now shaking.
The PTI YouTubers trained by the establishment are the only group that, despite knowing the reality, keep spreading the illusion that the “captain” will be released today or tomorrow. Obviously, as long as their lies sell, the dollars come in — if they speak the truth, most of their income will stop. Even PTI supporters now realize that their leader’s release is still “a long way from Delhi.”
Some circles claim that if Imran Khan were to surrender before the establishment, all his problems would be resolved. This is mere wishful thinking. In particular, given the events of May 9, the biggest concession PTI’s founder could possibly get is having his Bani Gala mansion declared a sub-jail and being shifted there. But even then the question would remain — would he have the comforts of home, or be locked in a single room the way Bushra Bibi was? Her room’s windows had black paper pasted over them to block sunlight. The conditions were such that Bushra Bibi herself requested to be sent back to Adiala Jail instead.
To this day, there’s not the slightest indication that Imran Khan has been offered an NRO (amnesty deal). He says himself that he will only talk to the military leadership. When there’s no response from them, he tries to verbally attack the Field Marshal. This has been the pattern since his arrest.
Even after major events like winning a war with India and the US President’s luncheon in honor of the Field Marshal — moments that have changed circumstances for everyone — PTI’s founder remains completely stuck. Former President Asif Zardari, a man with a PhD in serving prison time, offers his expert opinion: the real prison experience begins after two years. For Imran Khan, that time has now begun.
Despite all his threats and grand claims, he is already trying to find a way out through the KP Chief Minister, Ali Amin Gandapur. In the coming days, Shah Mahmood Qureshi is also likely to be given a similar role. Rumors aside, even some in government have been making grand claims. An irrelevant federal cabinet member recently told a TV show that Imran Khan was offered the chance to leave for the Gulf states, but he wanted to go to the UK, so nothing materialized.
It’s a simple fact: Imran Khan is neither Nawaz Sharif nor Benazir Bhutto, and Arab states are not some sort of open-air jails that you can send anyone to at will. Saudi Arabia or the UAE only host individuals they view positively. As for the UK — that’s out of the question. Why would anyone allow a figure like him to freely launch political and non-political attacks, especially when no one is willing to guarantee his behavior?
From his removal as Prime Minister to his arrest and convictions, no single officer’s whim was at play — these were institutional decisions. Given what Imran Khan has done during and after his time in office, the paths back to power are, to a large extent, permanently closed for him. If there’s any chance of him getting some relief in his sentences, that possibility is at least two years away.
The establishment certainly needs PTI in some form, but the party’s future role will be determined by officials of their choosing. In short, Imran Khan wants to get out, but the establishment doesn’t want that — and now, they don’t even feel the need.
Some analysts, to appear pro-democracy, say that for the sake of political stability the government should take the first step and negotiate with PTI’s founder. What admirable naivety — that the civilian government would negotiate with Imran Khan without the establishment’s permission, and thus invite instability upon itself.